What Vegas is secretly telling you about Fantasy Football WR edition
Fantasy Football is like betting. We make projections on who is going to finish first, and all the way to last. Vegas sportsbooks just released their player props on all the players in the NFL. It's not that Vegas sportsbooks should be the only factor we consider when evaluating players in fantasy football, but they are essentially giving us their thoughts on who is going to perform well or poorly, based on the player prop.
Puka Nacua
Let's start with Puka Nacua. His O/U is 1250.5 receiving yards. This is exceptionally high and ranks second only to Ja'Marr Chase, and is right in line with Justin Jefferson. Even with the arrival of Davante Adams, Vegas is telling us that Puka should be a top 5 receiver in the NFL based on receiving yards alone.
Had it not been for the injury Puka sustained in 2024, he probably would've had over 1000 receiving yards and over 100 receptions in 2024. Puka, in just 11 games, had 990 receiving yards, which is 90 receiving yards per game, and 79 receptions, which is a little over seven receptions per game.
Vegas is indicating that Puka is likely to be the number one target for the Rams and should have a very productive 2025, provided he stays healthy. I recommend targeting Puka in the 1st round of fantasy drafts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown has an O/U of 1050.5 receiving yards. Amon-Ra continues to be a very safe first-round pick in fantasy, but I find this projection to be low, considering he has cleared this easily for the past three years.
I want to loop in Jameson Williams into this, as his O/U is 875.5 receiving yards. Vegas is predicting that Jameson Williams will potentially break out again in 2025.
There are two key takeaways we can draw from these projections. One thing is that Vegas could be wrong, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is going to be by far and away the WR1 on the Detroit Lions. The second takeaway is that maybe Vegas is right, and the gap between Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra is not as big as it used to be.
After all, the departure of Ben Johnson could have something to do with this. Additionally, new OC John Morton is talking about how he wants to incorporate more of the deep ball into the Lions' offense.
Tyreek Hill
Tyreek Hill has an O/U of 975.5 receiving yards. The fantasy football community and experts believe that Tyreek Hill is expected to bounce back and give us an explosion in fantasy football for 2025. However, just like me, Vegas doesn't seem to be so sure that Tyreek is going to have a bounce-back season.
For a guy who produced back-to-back 1700+ receiving yard seasons in 2022 and 2023, 975.5 receiving yards seems very low.
On Underdog, Tyreek Hill is still a second-round pick in fantasy with an ADP of 21.4. You are making a massive bet that Tyreek will be electric in fantasy.
For a second-round pick, I think I want a little more security in my pick, plus there are still high upside players like Drake London who go in this range.
Drake London
Drake London has an O/U of 1075.5 receiving yards. For a player who broke out in 2024, this is a robust baseline, considering 2024 was his first 1,000-yard receiving campaign.
This aligns with Amon-Ra St. Brown's projection, based on the target share and total volume Drake London received in 2024, suggesting that Vegas believes another big season from Drake London is entirely possible.
If you have seen my content, Drake London is a big draft target for me in fantasy football, and in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts, I think that is a good spot for him, considering his upside, and what Michael Penix Jr. can bring to the table in terms of QB play.
If you want the full tweet I made, here is the shortened version.
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